Panmure Liberum has identified Persimmon as the standout winner from the government's Your First Home (YFH) buyer assistance scheme.
It argues that the York-based housebuilder's lower price points, northern geographic bias and vertically integrated supply model leave it uniquely placed to benefit from the policy.
Your First Home, announced by Prime Minister Andy Burnham, is designed to provide financial assistance to first-time buyers of new-build homes and is widely regarded as a successor to Help to Buy, which at its peak accounted for around 40% of private completions in England.
Panmure analysts Adrian Kearsey and Kate Middleton said the scheme will disproportionately benefit housebuilders with lower-priced product and a stronger presence in regions where affordability is less stretched.
MJ Gleeson is also flagged as a likely beneficiary, though it is not formally rated by the broker.
The positive catalyst comes against a backdrop of significant pressure on sector margins.
The Home Builders Federation estimates that the cost of building a new home has risen by £76,000 since 2020, split roughly equally between materials inflation and the creeping burden of additional regulation.
Panmure estimates that between 2023 and 2027, the blended EBIT margin of Barratt Redrow, Bellway and Taylor Wimpey will have contracted by 507 basis points, a squeeze it sees as structural and unlikely to reverse soon.
By contrast, Persimmon's vertically integrated model, which uses internally manufactured bricks, roof tiles and timber frames, saving up to around £10,000 per unit, is expected to limit its margin contraction to just 50 basis points over the same period.
Housebuilder valuations are at their most depressed since the global financial crisis, with price-to-tangible-net-asset-value multiples well below long-run averages, a level Panmure Liberum said does not reflect the sector's genuine prospects once Your First Home volumes begin to feed through.
In the supply chain, Marshalls and Ibstock are identified as the names with the most to gain from any recovery in new-build activity.
