Shell shares rose 3.2% to 4,083.5p after the oil and gas group beat third-quarter forecasts on earnings and cash flow and raised its share buyback to $5 billion from $3 billion.
Jefferies, the broker, called the results a "small positive", with adjusted earnings of $10.8 billion 5% ahead of consensus.
Cash flow from operations before working capital, a measure of the cash the business generates, was $21.7 billion, 19% above consensus.
Mark Wilson, analyst at Jefferies, said results were strong across the board, with chemicals and products cash flow of $8.5 billion a highlight.
Net debt fell 4% on the quarter to $39.7 billion, even after the ARC Resources acquisition completed.
Gearing, which measures debt against capital, dropped 210 basis points to 16.6%, including leases.
Jefferies estimates total shareholder returns will be about 37% of cash flow for 2026, below Shell's 40% to 50% target range.
The broker said the key question on this morning's call was how much more cash Shell would hand back.
Shell, the London-listed group, reported adjusted earnings, its preferred measure of profit excluding one-off items, up from $9.8 billion in the second quarter.
Integrated gas earned $3.0 billion, 4% above consensus, helped by higher gas and liquefied natural gas prices.
Chemicals and products earned $3.9 billion as the global indicative refining margin jumped to $42 a barrel from $24.
Jefferies said it understood refining margins were continuing at third-quarter levels so far in the fourth quarter.
Shell said the result came despite low water levels on the Rhine river, which affect fuel and chemicals logistics in Europe.
Acquisition and investment
Shell completed its purchase of ARC Resources, the Canadian gas producer, on September 2.
It also took a final investment decision on phase two of LNG Canada, its liquefied natural gas export project in British Columbia.
Wael Sawan, chief executive, said the deals would support long-term cash flow growth.
Shell expects fourth-quarter integrated gas production of 1.08 million to 1.18 million barrels of oil equivalent a day, up from 772,000 in the third quarter, reflecting ARC.
Jefferies said consensus was for 1.034 million.
Balance sheet and outlook
Shell expects 2026 cash capital expenditure, including ARC, of $23 billion to $25 billion.
The company also flagged a non-cash loss of about $6.4 billion in the fourth quarter, linked to the derecognition of its Netherlands defined benefit pension plan.
Jefferies kept its Buy rating and £45 price target, about 14% above the previous close.
Shell will hold a capital markets update on February 4, 2027.
