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Haleon shares plunge 12% as sales miss forces forecast cut and analysts warn of a margin reset

The image shows a shelf filled with various packages of Sensodyne toothpaste, prominently displaying multiple boxes with distinct branding and product details. The setting appears — Credit: Courtesy of HALEON PLC
Courtesy of HALEON PLC

Haleon shares fell 12% to 329p after the consumer health group missed third-quarter sales forecasts and cut its 2026 growth guidance.

Haleon, the maker of Sensodyne toothpaste and Panadol, trimmed its sales growth forecast to around 2.5% after third-quarter organic revenue growth of 2.6% fell short of its own expectations.

Organic growth strips out currency moves, acquisitions and disposals, and reported revenue rose 2.5% to £2.868 billion.

Jefferies, the broker, called the update "disappointing" and said problems were now "deep" in the business.

David Hayes, analyst at Jefferies, said consensus had been for 3.4% growth, and that volume growth of 0.5% compared with 1.3% expected.

He said continual misses on sales and volumes made the commitment to margin improvement look "futile", and that consensus earnings would have to rebase.

Hayes said he could see cuts to 2027 forecasts of 5% to 7%.

Jefferies retained its Buy rating and 400p price target, saying the opportunity to deliver on about 5% like-for-like growth remains.

Brian McNamara, chief executive, blamed softness across some categories, including weaker cough, cold and flu consumption, which led to lower orders in North America and Europe.

Respiratory health sales fell 2.0%.

China and Brazil

Haleon also had to stop importing Centrum vitamins registered as over-the-counter products in China, after a change in how regulators classify a raw material.

It said the change was not linked to product quality or safety, and that the products generated about £75 million of revenue in 2025.

Jefferies estimates a full quarter of the halt would cost about 0.6 percentage points of group growth.

The group is also accelerating a revamp of how it sells in Brazil, bringing it forward to the fourth quarter to coincide with a new tax framework.

Haleon expects that to cut fourth-quarter net revenue by £15 million to £20 million.

Oral health shines

Oral health was the bright spot, with sales up 8.8% and Sensodyne growing at double digits.

India grew at high-teens rates, helping the International division to 6.9% growth, while Asia Pacific rose 3.9% and North America 2.5%.

Europe slipped 0.6%, as volumes fell 2.7%, although Jefferies said a favourable mosquito season and hot summer flattered the figure.

Price added 2.1% to group growth, while volume and mix added only 0.5%.

Vitamins and supplements fell 0.5%.

Profit and buyback

Haleon kept its forecast for adjusted operating profit growth at high single digits at constant currency.

It also allocated a further £500 million to share buybacks, to be completed by full-year results on February 25, 2027.

Jefferies said it did not view the buyback particularly positively for a company it believes should be consolidating its sector.

McNamara said the priority was to drive stronger volume growth and return to its medium-term growth targets.