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Ashmore beats AUM forecasts but divided analyst views keep lid on shares

Credit: Towfiqu barbhuiya by Unsplash
Towfiqu barbhuiya by Unsplash

Ashmore Group, the emerging markets asset manager, beat expectations on assets under management and net inflows in its latest quarterly update, but conflicting broker views left investors with little clear direction.

Assets under management reached $54.5 billion in the three months to September, above consensus expectations of $54.2 billion, with net inflows of $1.1 billion also ahead of the $0.9 billion forecast.

Negative market performance of $0.6 billion partially offset the gains, with overall assets rising around 1% in the quarter.

Deutsche Bank kept its sell rating on the stock, nudging its price target up to 160p from 155p, but argued the modest improvement did little to change the investment case, with the outlook statement showing no apparent shift.

The bank said the valuation remained unjustified by fundamentals, pointing to a capital-adjusted price-to-earnings ratio of around 23 times against roughly 10 times for peers.

Panmure Liberum took the opposite view, reaffirming its buy recommendation and 350p price target after a second consecutive quarter of net inflows reinforced its confidence in a recovery.

The broker highlighted that inflows were split evenly between fixed income and equities, and that gross redemptions had fallen to their lowest quarterly level in more than 15 years.

It argued that consensus was assuming too gradual a recovery, pointing to $36 billion of inflows between January 2017 and December 2019 as evidence of the group's capacity to attract capital at scale.

Stripping out £0.7 billion in cash and seed capital, Panmure Liberum said the operating business implied a pro forma 2028 price-to-earnings ratio of 15.3 times.

Ashmore's next quarterly assets under management update is due in January 2027.