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Economics

UK economy defies forecasts with surprise growth in August

Credit: Jeriden Villegas by Unsplash
Jeriden Villegas by Unsplash

The UK economy grew in August, confounding predictions it would contract, official figures show.

Gross domestic product (GDP), the broadest measure of economic output, rose by 0.1% in the month, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

Economists had widely forecast a contraction of between 0.1% and 0.3%, expecting a correction after stronger-than-expected growth in June and July.

The picture looks even more positive over a longer timeframe, with GDP growing by 0.7% in the three months to August compared with the three months to May.

The ONS also revised its three-month figure to July upward, from 0.4% to 0.5%, making it the eighth consecutive period of quarterly growth.

Compared with the same period a year ago, GDP was 1.8% higher in the three months to August, and 2.1% higher than in August 2025 alone.

Services, the dominant part of the UK economy, was the main engine of growth, expanding by 0.9% on a three-month basis, driven by professional, scientific and technical activities and information and communication.

Within services, computer programming and consultancy was the single largest industry contributor to GDP growth, marking its sixth consecutive month as the top-contributing industry on a three-monthly basis.

Production output rose 0.8% in August on a monthly basis, helped by a 5.1% jump in pharmaceutical manufacturing, though the sector fell 0.2% on a three-month view.

Construction was the weak spot, falling 1.0% over the three months to August and declining 0.2% in August alone, dragged down by a 1.9% fall in private housing new work.

The ONS cautioned that monthly GDP figures can be volatile and should be read alongside the three-month measure to gauge the medium-term trend.

Forward-looking indicators for September 2026 present a more mixed picture, with retail footfall down, energy and fuel prices elevated, and an uptick in potential redundancy notifications to the Insolvency Service.

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