JP Morgan has said AstraZeneca offers a compelling balance of risk and reward, pointing to a run of late-stage trial results due in 2027 that could unlock more than $20bn of peak sales.
The bank said the Phase III readouts, if successful, could substantially increase investor confidence in growth beyond 2030. The figure is not adjusted for the chance of failure.
The readouts include the oral cholesterol drug laroprovstat, alone and combined with statins, and combination studies of the diabetes drug Farxiga.
They also cover Datroway in earlier-stage triple negative breast cancer, puxi-sam in second-line and later endometrial cancer, camizestrant in adjuvant breast cancer and saruparib in castration-sensitive prostate cancer.
The note followed AstraZeneca's Meet Management event at the 2026 European Society for Medical Oncology congress.
The focus is on AVANZAR, a trial of Datroway in lung cancer. Results have been pushed back to the first quarter of 2027 from the fourth quarter of 2026, because too few patients have yet seen their disease progress.
Analysts have limited expectations for it, with Datroway making up about 1% of AstraZeneca's net present value in consensus forecasts.
JP Morgan examined the statistical hurdles for success in both the biomarker-positive group and all patients. It considered whether the delay of more than 12 months could reflect the control arm outperforming, or patients dropping out of the analysis.
Even with conservative assumptions, it said, the control regimen, known from the KEYNOTE-189 trial, would need to do far better than expected to explain the delay.
That raises the bank's confidence in the readout, particularly for patients whose tumours carry the TROP2 biomarker.
AstraZeneca trades on 15 times 2027 earnings, in line with European pharma, despite core earnings per share growth of 10% over 2027 to 2030, about 40% ahead of the sector.
