Deutsche Bank has upgraded Antofagasta, the FTSE 100 copper miner, from 'sell' to 'hold', saying a reset in production guidance has made its targets more realistic.
The bank cut its price target to 3,300p from 3,600p. That is about 4% above the last close of 3,174p.
Analyst Liam Fitzpatrick said the shares have fallen sharply since the third-quarter production report. Over the past month they have lagged both copper and listed peers by about 5% to 15%.
The revised guidance now reflects "a more realistic and achievable level", he said.
Antofagasta has missed its production guidance every year since 2021, which Fitzpatrick said has weighed on investor confidence.
On average, output has come in about 4% below the mid-point of the guided range and about 1% below the bottom of it.
He believes guidance for 2027 has now been appropriately reset. The company expects copper output of 630,000 to 690,000 tonnes, against Deutsche Bank's forecast of 657,000 tonnes.
That implies only modest year-on-year growth, even though the bank expects higher ore grades and throughput at Los Pelambres, one of Antofagasta's main Chilean mines.
Grade is the amount of copper in the rock being mined, and throughput is how much rock a mine processes.
Deutsche Bank has refreshed its estimates following the production report.
The upgrade comes after a period of weak share price performance, with the lower target reflecting the cut to expectations.
