Jefferies analysts say Flutter Entertainment's US business is tracking in line with third-quarter guidance, after earlier estimates had pointed to a miss.
Flutter, the FTSE 100 owner of FanDuel and Paddy Power, is expected to report US net gaming revenue up 8% to $1,483m, against guidance of $1,480m.
That is a 1% improvement on the broker's previous tracker.
The main driver is lower promotional spending in September, which Jefferies had expected to rise.
Flutter's September promotions are tracking down 16% year on year in states where data is visible, and down about 30% in Michigan and Pennsylvania, two of its ten largest states.
Ohio, its fourth-largest state, is the next test of whether the lower promotional intensity is widespread.
Jefferies keeps a buy rating on Flutter with a $180 price target, 120% above its $81.69 close.
US online casino revenue grew 13% across the market in September, up from 12% in August but below 16% in the second quarter.
Flutter's online casino growth was 8%, in line with August, but ahead of DraftKings at 8% and BetMGM at 4%.
Prediction markets, where users trade on the outcome of events, continue to grow.
Kalshi's sports volumes hit a record $18.3bn in week six of the NFL season, though its market share has slipped to 76% from 84%.
Jefferies also rates Entain a buy with a 1,000p target, against a 452.10p close.
