Bets on Anthropic hitting a $2 trillion stock market valuation have cooled after the artificial intelligence company revealed it has committed to almost $900 billion of spending on computing power and data centres.
On Polymarket, a prediction market where users bet on future events, traders moved money into the lower valuation bands after the updated prospectus was published.
The $1.5 trillion to $1.75 trillion band is now the joint favourite at 28%, up 8 points, while the odds on $1.75 trillion to $2 trillion fell 9 points to 23%.
The compute bill
The amended filing, known as an S-1/A, was submitted to the US Securities and Exchange Commission on 2 November.
It shows purchase commitments and leases worth about $895.4 billion, almost all related to compute and infrastructure.
Only around $213 billion of those contracts allow Anthropic to avoid payment.
The company warned that meeting the obligations depends on its ability to keep growing revenue significantly.
Revenue soars
On that front, the business is still expanding at a remarkable pace. Revenue for the nine months to September reached $33.2 billion, up about 1,200% on the same period last year.
Third-quarter revenue was about $17 billion, up roughly 1,127% year on year and 47% on the previous quarter.
That quarterly growth rate was slower than the 144% recorded in the second quarter, as costs rose alongside capacity.
Back into the red
Operating expenses of $17.52 billion edged above third-quarter revenue, turning a $974 million operating profit in the second quarter into a $567 million loss.
Anthropic blamed $5 billion of short-term computing costs, needed because supply could not keep up with demand, and about $2 billion of non-cash charges linked to donation matching. The net loss for the first nine months reached $104 billion.
Valuation questions
Earlier reports put the target valuation at between $1.5 trillion and $2 trillion, with a raise of at least $100 billion, which would make it one of the largest listings ever.
That compares with a private valuation of $965 billion set in May. Some investors are reportedly weighing a lower valuation.
A footnote in the original prospectus suggested the board valued the shares at about $71.43 in September, implying a valuation near $1.2 trillion.
What happens next
Anthropic plans to list on the Nasdaq under the ticker ANT, with the listing reportedly targeted for the week of 16 November. The share price range and IPO date will come in a further amendment.
Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs are leading the offering.
