Next has passed a turning point, says Deutsche Bank, but slashes target price
The retailer’s increasingly medium-term stance is something that should pique the interests of investors, analysts said
Company
LON:NXT
Next plc is a United Kingdom-based retailer offering products in clothing, footwear, accessories and home products
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The retailer’s increasingly medium-term stance is something that should pique the interests of investors, analysts said
Predicting performance for the next nine months is extremely difficult
War in Ukraine has added further uncertainty for the fashion retailer
London retains crown of Europe's top financial hub
After the deluge in recent weeks the results flow starts to ease a little on Thursday
The clothing retailer raised wages by an average of 5.4% last year and responded with price hikes in its shops of 3.7% last spring/summer and 6% for the autumn/winter collection
The move comes amid soaring levels of worker absences due to the rapid spread of the Omicron variant of coronavirus
Next does two things exceptionally well. It sells things and it manages the market's expectations.
The company announced another special dividend, this time of 160p per share, compared to September's 110p payout
US economic data will bring thoughts back to interest rate hikes and how many we will see in 2022
“Although consumer finances are in good shape, price increases in essential goods (such as fuel) may moderate demand for more discretionary purchases,” the clothing retailer cautioned
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Coca Cola HBC and Smurfit Kappa are also due to release updates
Chief executive Simon Wolfson, a Conservative peer and ardent Brexit supporter, is asking for government action
The retailer expects growth to slow down over the coming months
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In terms of macro releases, Wednesday comes with UK and US housing figures in terms of mortgage lending and approvals
Gap announced earlier this year that it will close its 81 stores in the two countries
More than 400 Next shop workers, the vast majority of them women, are seeking equal pay rates to workers in the retailer's distribution centres
UBS said investors had expected a special dividend but the magnitude was a pleasant surprise
Shareholders will also get £240mln in special dividends
Cash returns have historically been a key component of shareholders in the retail sector and they are about to be back
Europe’s e-commerce landscape is undergoing significant structural change, according to researchers at Alvarez & Marsal Inc. and Retail Economics
The retailer has enjoyed pent-up demand over the past few weeks
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The UK blue chip index closed higher after positive economic news
It is set to be an active Thursday for trading updates/
A management buy-out backed by Dubai-based investors has been agreed
The central case scenario was revised upwards following strong performance recently
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The UK blue chip index closed in the green and Dow is moveing higher after survey showed ten months of growth from US factories
Several sectors have demanded specific measures that will help them survive the pandemic
It is understood that Chinese online platform Shein is now the frontrunner to acquire Topshop with a £300mln offer
Mike Ashley’s Frasers Group and Barneys department store owner Authentic Brands, which planned to make a joint effort with JD Sports, are also bidding
Despite the rating change, the bank also hiked its target price for the retailer to 8,100p from 6,550p, although added that there is now “less scope for further re-rating and upwards earnings revisions” over the next 12 months
The broker reinstated the target price of 8,300p after “very resilient Christmas trading which beat expectations”
The company has had a succession of visionary leaders and in the current century at least has made a habit of under-promising and over-delivering
Profit gained in the past few weeks has been almost entirely offset by the anticipated loss of upcoming January closures and the additional costs of clearing stock online
There will be a supermarket industry spending report from Kantar, plus an individual update scheduled from Morrison's
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The prime minister is expected to announce tougher restrictions at 8.00pm tonight, with many people expecting England to go into full lockdown.
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The macro calendar will return with a selection of UK and US PMI readings as well as the all-important US non-farm payrolls data on Friday, January 8
Sales in the quarter had been boosted by a strong performance in the clothing retailer's online division, which offset declines from its retail stores
The group's UK stores are expected to contribute just 31% of sales and 14% of underlying earnings by calendar 2022 as the growth of online sales dominates
More than one in ten UK workers currently are being supported by furloughing
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“I don’t think people will walk into Next and see a completely different Next and be shocked by it," said chief executive Simon Wolfson
The retailer's shares have “had a decent run”, the analysts said
Even in its worst forward guidance scenarios for the year, the group is expected to generate profits and cash and cut debt
Profit before tax could be as much as £330mln or as little as £15mln based on three scenarios
“Post COVD-19 disruption, we expect the Next UK brand return to a yoy decline, driving Next brand UK EBIT down to <£200mn in FY25E (from FY20E £412 mn),” Goldman's analysts said
Shopping will be a very different experience from three months ago
If non-essential businesses are allowed to open over the next months, they will have to adopt measures to make customers feel safe
The fashion retailer has been ramping up its operations and implementing cost-saving plans, including the sale of its headquarters
Demand is at a historical low but summer ranges are still piled up in warehouses
“The idea is to begin selling in low volumes, so that we only need a small number of colleagues in each warehouse at any one time, helping to ensure rigorous social distancing is complied with”
With its 550 stores closed due to the UK's lockdown, the Topshop owner has been forced to furlough 14,500 of its workers
Wolfson said Next “could sustain” the loss of 25% of annual sales, if the coronavirus lockdown was sustained for several weeks
The retailer said workers in the warehousing and distribution operations “increasingly feel they should be at home in the current climate”
Management have identified a series of measures assuming the pandemic lasts from two to 24 weeks
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Britain's blue-chip benchmark closed up around 71 points at 5,151, while FTSE 250 fell over 178 points at 12,829
Company updates on the calendar for the coming week include Antofagasta, Ferguson, Gym Group, JD Wetherspoon, Next, Morrisons and Ocado
Citi’s analysts said: “The shares have sold off c.40% since the coronavirus newsflow started and we believe this is excessive”
The bank downgraded the stock to ‘hold’ from ‘buy’ and slashed the target price to 7,050p from 7,300p after reducing future estimates
Berenberg raised its price target, UBS kept the 'buy' recommendation, SocGen downgraded the stock to ‘sell’
Multiple analysts said the retailer had delivered a robust set of figures despite tough conditions, however, they were unsure whether its peers would fare as well
The clothing retailer said full price sales in the festive period had risen 5.2%, with double-digit growth in its online division offsetting declines in its stores
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FTSE added over 18 points on the day to close at 7,622, while the FTSE 250 plunged over 120 points to 21,988.
The first Friday of 2020 will see the clothing chain kick off the traditional round of trading updates from the UK's retailers following the crucial festive trading season
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The focus will be back on the gifts that keep giving – the state of the UK high street, and the health of the US economy
RBC published a 97-page “industry primer” covering the €1trn European general retail sector
The broker lowered its rating for the retailer to 'hold' from 'buy' on valuation grounds following a 64% jump in the shares since January
In an update for its third quarter, the clothing retailer reported that total full-price sales had risen 1.6% in the period as 9.7% growth in its online division offset a 6.3% slump for its high street stores
Next usually underpromises and over-delivers so investors were left disappointed by the absence of an upgrade to its forecasts
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Next recently upgraded its full-year forecasts after a 3.8% rise in first-half sales
Credit Suisse says: “when demand is increasingly driven by online/social media engagement, rather than footfall, we see consumers increasingly favouring smaller brands and multi-brand distribution”
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Investors are expecting a cut of 0.25% in the benchmark short-term rate
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The day ahead includes interims from Lloyds and Taylor Wimpey along with the Federal Reserve's latest policy decision
Investments and investor services
Just Eat is poised to combine with Dutch rival Takeaway.com to form one of the world's largest food delivery firms
Investments and investor services
The Footsie finished down nearly six points at 7,603
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Aside from the AB Foods update, investors will also be eyeing updates from builders Persimmon and MJ Gleeson, while US markets will be shut for Independence Day
Investments and investor services
The UK benchmark index closed over 56 points higher, at 7,353, aided by the fall in the pound
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Numbers from Countryside Properties, National Grid, and Wincanton will also be among Thursday's highlights.
Amazon has been a thorn in the side of bricks-and-mortar retailers for years, but the ecommerce giant’s customers will now be able to go into Next stores to pick up their parcels
Overseas markets, particularly the US, have proved tough for UK companies to crack, just ask Tesco, Next, Sainsbury’s and many others…
Total sales grew by a better-than-expected 4.5% in the opening three months of 2019, and Next put the outperformance down to the warm weather over the Easter holiday period
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The UK's premier share index finished down nearly 33 points at 7,385
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There’s a lot for investors to get their teeth into on Wednesday, with Sainsbury’s, GSK and Persimmon among the slew of companies reporting alongside Next
It comes after latest data showed that core inflation in the US was flat last month (March) while consumer spending rose
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After hitting a six-month high on Tuesday afternoon, London's blue-chips took a step back on Wednesday
RBC’s preferred stocks are Next and Primark owner Associated British Foods
With much wilder weather in the opening three months of 2019 compared with the same period last year, Jefferies is looking for Next to deliver first-quarter sales growth of 3.7% in next month’s update
“The difference between the fortunes of stores and online is becoming increasingly marked,” said Richard Hunter, head of markets at Interactive Investors
"No one knows what the High Street will look like in ten years, but one thing is certain: The people walking down it will be wearing clothes,” chief executive Lord Wolfson said
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The FTSE 250 though, seen as a better indicator of the state of UK companies, closed down around 41 points at 19,347.
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Not much excitement is expected from the Bank of England, so investor attention will instead be on two of the UK’s troubled clothes retailers: Ted Baker and Next
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The Day Ahead will bring updates from the likes of Primark-owner Associated British Foods, a caffeine-free Whitbread, credit checker Experian, and software firm Sage
Analysts reckon it’s a combination of factors, although most of thing come back to the same thing: JD sells things that today’s youth want to buy
Credit Suisse’s analysts noted that Next is expecting a gradual decline in margins which is likely to accelerate in future years as currency factors turn negative
Investments and investor services
Footsie closed down over 63 points at 6,855 on the day
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Aside from the Brexit merry-go-round, the Week Ahead will bring UK inflation and retail sales numbers, plus updates from the likes of AB Foods, Persimmon, Bovis Homes, and Whitbread
Below we provide a cut-out-and-keep guide to the major quoted retailers and how the quoted retailers performed
HSBC's analysts pointed out that the market is applying little or no value to Next’s Retail operations, albeit which is consistent with management’s long-range Store Stress Test
Aldi sold almost £1bn worth of food and drink in the run-up to the holiday season, and Morrisons has responded by slashing the prices of more than 900 products
The private equity-owned firm, which has a portfolio of more than 700 pubs, bars and late night venues, saw its sales rise 12% higher year-on-year in the two weeks to 1 January 2019