JP Morgan has upgraded Glencore to overweight and lifted its price target to £7.30 per share, citing forecast copper production growth of more than 30% to around 1.1 million tonnes between 2026 and 2031.
The bank says Glencore's marketing division and coal assets offer unique hedges against geopolitical uncertainty, making it one of its highest-conviction picks heading into the fourth quarter and 2027.
European metals and mining stocks have fallen 4% since the start of the Iran conflict, oscillating in a wide trading range that JP Morgan says reflects a lack of investor conviction.
The bank argues this disconnect is unjustified given strong global growth, accelerating purchasing managers' indices and structural supply constraints across copper, aluminium, coal and steel.
Antofagasta remains JP Morgan's top EMEA copper miner, with the bank forecasting return on capital employed growing above 35% from 2028 and free cash flow yields of 6% to 8% as production ramps up.
Gold miners are flagged as offering the greatest upside, with JP Morgan's commodities team forecasting a gold price of $5,000 per ounce by the fourth quarter of 2027.
Fresnillo and AngloGold Ashanti are the bank's preferred gold plays, both rated overweight.
Kumba Iron Ore has been upgraded to overweight, with JP Morgan arguing that a 65% share price decline since late 2023 has created around 30% upside to its ZAR 300 per share target, supported by net cash of $500 million.
Anglo American has been lifted to neutral with a revised fair value of £38.50 per share, as the bank awaits final Chinese regulatory approval for the company's approximately $90 billion merger with Teck Resources.
Lundin Mining remains underweight, placed on negative catalyst watch ahead of a capital expenditure update tied to the Vicuna Phase 1 investment decision.
