Traders on Polymarket, the crypto prediction market, are pricing in just a 9% chance that bitcoin sets a fresh all-time high before the end of 2026.
The odds of a record by 30 September are below 1%, with "Yes" shares changing hands at half a cent.
That would require a rally of roughly 50% in five days, which is a big ask even by bitcoin's standards.
The world's largest cryptocurrency was trading at about $84,190 on Friday, up 9% on the week.
Its record stands at $126,210, set on 6 October 2025.
September has brought a recovery, with bitcoin briefly topping $87,000 on Monday to return to late-January levels, though it remains roughly a third below last October's peak.
The rebound came despite a Federal Reserve interest rate rise and the failure of the CLARITY Act, legislation that would have created a federal framework for the digital asset industry.
Spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which let investors buy bitcoin through ordinary brokerage accounts, swung from mid-month redemptions to more than $2 billion in inflows.
Short sellers forced to close losing bets added further fuel to the move.
The next major resistance zone, where sellers are expected to cluster, sits between $88,000 and $90,000.
The bigger picture is less exciting: bitcoin opened 2026 near $87,500 and is close to that level again, having traded as low as the high $50,000s earlier in the year.
The Polymarket contract settles on Binance's one-minute price data for bitcoin against Tether, a dollar-pegged stablecoin.
It resolves "Yes" only if the high of a one-minute candle beats every previous peak.
Around $10.3 million has been wagered across the market, including $1.8 million on the December contract.
Punters are no more optimistic elsewhere in crypto, giving Ethereum and XRP an 8% chance of new records by year-end and Solana just 4%.
