Bitcoin is trading around $82,700 this morning with less than two weeks left in October, and prediction market Polymarket suggests the cryptocurrency's traditional "Uptober" rally is running out of road.
Traders on Polymarket, the decentralised betting platform, put the probability of Bitcoin reaching $85,000 by October 31 at just 66%, while the chances of clearing $87,500 have slipped to 39%.
The odds fall sharply above that level, with only a 22% chance of hitting $90,000 and an 11% probability of reaching $92,500, figures that point to a market increasingly sceptical that the seasonal tailwind will deliver its usual gains this month.
Bitcoin had been expected by many analysts to push higher in October, a month historically associated with strong crypto performance. Earlier forecasts clustered around $90,000 to $98,000 for end of month, with more bullish scenarios targeting $105,000 or above.
Instead, the world's largest cryptocurrency by market value has struggled, weighed down by the same AI-driven technology selloff that rattled global equity markets last week and persistent concerns about inflation complicating the outlook for interest rates.
The Polymarket contract resolves on October 31, meaning bettors are effectively pricing in where Bitcoin closes the month rather than where it might trade at any point during it.
At current levels, Bitcoin would need to gain roughly 8% in under a fortnight to clear $90,000.
