RBC Capital Markets has maintained its 'sector perform' rating on GSK, the FTSE 100 pharmaceuticals giant, with a 1,975p price target implying around 15% upside from current levels.
The broker expects a broadly in-line third quarter when GSK reports on 28 October, with revenue of £8.8 billion against consensus of £8.9 billion.
Core earnings per share are forecast at 50.8p, matching consensus exactly.
The respiratory drug Nucala is expected to be the standout, with RBC forecasting £623 million in revenue, 7% ahead of consensus, driven by a COPD indication approved last year.
Shingrix, the shingles vaccine, is seen as a modest drag, with RBC 4% below consensus at £800 million due to pricing pressure and weak China demand.
RBC expects GSK to narrow its full-year guidance towards 4-5% revenue growth and 7-8% earnings growth at the results.
The broker's price target is based on 10 times its 2027 earnings per share estimate of 195.8p, a discount to European large-cap pharma peers.
That discount reflects concerns about growth visibility beyond 2028, when generic competition to dolutegravir, GSK's key HIV drug, is expected to create a revenue hole of more than £3 billion.
The HIV franchise currently accounts for around 25% of group revenue but could fall to 15% by 2030 as loss of exclusivity takes hold.
Key near-term catalysts include a US Food and Drug Administration decision on bepirovirsen, a hepatitis B treatment, on 26 October, and an oncology data update call on 27 October.
RBC sees limited share price catalysts through year-end, with the strategic focus shifting to a new cost savings plan and phase three trial starts in 2027.
GSK's longer-term target of more than £40 billion in sales by 2031, with half from specialty medicines, would require near-perfect execution, the broker said.
