As American voters head to the polls in midterm elections on Tuesday, with at least one eye on the price of a tank of fuel, crude oil was again rising, again as a result of American military strikes.
After pulling back on Monday, oil prices pointed up again today amid US strikes on Iran’s Qeshm Island and fresh doubts over peace talks revived supply concerns.
Brent crude traded at $105.30 a barrel, up 0.50%, while West Texas Intermediate gained 1.01% to $97.43.
Tehran and Washington remained far from agreement with Iran unwilling to accept US demands, according to Reuters, citing senior Iranian officials.
Commentary attributed to US officials, meanwhile, described the Qeshm strikes as defensive operations intended to prevent attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, keeping the security of Gulf export routes firmly in focus.
The resurgent uncertainty comes as Goldman Sachs has raised its December Brent forecast to $105 from $90, with analysts citing heightened supply risks.
Analysts at the American bank also lifted its expected 2027 average to $88 from $80.
Out in the market, higher prices are continuing to feed through into producers’ earnings.
Saudi Aramco reported third-quarter adjusted net profit of $31.2 billion, up 9% and above the $28.7 billion consensus cited by Bloomberg.
Aramco's average price per barrel increased to $95.20 a barrel from $70.10 a year earlier, while stronger refining margins helped offset disruption from attacks on infrastructure. Reported net profit rose 35% to $36.3 billion, also benefiting from a Malaysian asset disposal.
Elsewhere, in gas markets, US liquefied natural gas exports reached their second-highest level on record as European buyers sought winter supplies.
Shipments to Europe rose by one million tonnes in October to 6.89 million tonnes, according to industry data highlighted in a Reuters report.
European gas prices climbed above €100 per megawatt-hour for the first time in four years, underlining the broader pressure on energy supplies. And that's against a backdrop in which QatarEnergy has extended force majeure on its LNG exports until December, prolonging uncertainty over deliveries as winter demand approaches.
On the corporate side, meanwhile, Shell today announced its $1.45bn disposal of its stake in an LNG business in Australia, and, separately, Abu Dhabi's state hydrocarbons firm ADNOC agreed to supply French supermajor TotalEnergies with some 1.6 million tons of LNG.
