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BP eyes US shale deals, but UBS says it has yet to earn a licence to spend

Jun. 1973: Oil wells near Teapot Dome, Wyoming (Boyd Norton / Documerica) — Credit: Photo by Documerica on Unsplash
Photo by Documerica on Unsplash

BP has been told by UBS that it needs to cut debt before investors will back a return to dealmaking.

The warning follows a Reuters report, citing six sources, that BP has entered the data room on a small number of US shale assets put up for sale by their owners.

A data room is a secure online space where prospective buyers review confidential information about an asset before bidding.

BP has mainly looked at oil-producing assets valued at between $2 billion and $5 billion, including the Eagle Ford operation of Devon Energy, the US oil producer.

Timing questioned

UBS said it was not surprised that BP shares underperformed the sector by about 1.5% on the news.

The broker said the assets would complement BP's US shale business, but the timing looked early.

It pointed to crude trading above $100 a barrel, the absence of a new financial framework and several announced asset sales that have yet to be agreed.

A licence to spend can only be granted after building a track record, UBS said, and the market would prefer to see more progress on deleveraging first.

It added that entering a data room does not always lead to a deal.

Shale strength

BP's US shale business is concentrated in the Permian, Eagle Ford and Haynesville basins.

Volumes have risen 37% since 2023 and unit costs have fallen 8%, with UBS estimating the business breaks even on free cash flow at about $45 a barrel.

New Eagle Ford wells drilled closer together are producing twice as much as the original wells drilled a decade ago.

UBS rates BP a buy with a 675p price target, against a share price of 572p.

It expects BP's full-year results in February, which will include a strategy update, to act as the next major catalyst.